As seen in
January 5, 2003
Commercial Real Estate
In Commercial Markets, Mixed Signals
by JOHN HOLUSHA
THE real estate market in New York
as the new year begins is choppy and characterized by crosscurrents.
The demand for office space is soft and asking rents are declining
but the retail segment in Manhattan remains strong. Investors
are spending heavily for trophy buildings, but less attractive
office towers draw little interest.
An influx of capital from investors wary of the stock market
and scornful of bond market yields has resulted in rich prices
being paid for trophy properties filled with tenants with good
credit ratings locked into long leases. But the appeal of buildings
with empty space or leases set to expire in a few years has
dropped abruptly, and real estate executives say many announced
deals have not closed and others have quietly been withdrawn
from the market.
Some tenants are seeking to lock in the current low rents and
get rid of slow-moving sublet space by persuading their landlords
to take back the vacant space in return for extensions to their
existing leases. Owners, in turn, have to judge whether eliminating
sublet space being offered by leaseholders who are, in effect,
competing with their landlords to lure new tenants will ease
the downward price pressure on rents and whether the lease extensions
will allow them to refinance at the current low interest rates.
The outlook for the coming year is unclear, with some executives
saying that an economic upturn could gobble up available space
quickly while others are observing that such an upturn is nowhere
in sight. ''There is,'' said Robert Billingsley, vice chairman
of Colliers ABR, a brokerage specializing in office leasing,
''a continuum of optimism about the outlook for the market.
Most people say it will get softer. The optimists say it will
be for six months. The pessimists say it will be for two years.''
Peter Pattison, a real estate industry consultant, would count
as a pessimist. ''If we are on the bottom -- and I am not sure
we are -- we are going to stay there for a while,'' he said.
''Space is going to compete for tenants. Financial pressures
will force people to put space out at what the market will pay.''
''There is a lot more space coming on the market this year,
and we already have a two-year supply in inventory,'' said John
B. Brod, a principal in PBS Realty Advisors, a small brokerage
that specializes in representing tenants. ''The recovery will
await the national economy, which probably means not until 2005.''
According to figures compiled by Insignia/ESG, the real estate
brokerage and services company, the overall vacancy rate in
Manhattan stood at 11.8 percent at the end of the third quarter
of 2002, compared with 8.4 percent a year earlier and just 3.8
percent at the height of the market in 2000.
The overall asking rental rate in the same time had fallen to
$44.66 a square foot annually, from $50.75 a square foot a year
earlier and $52.67 in 2000.
In spite of the declines, many real estate executives said the
New York leasing market is strong compared with many other cities
across the country. ''We are well below the national average
for vacancies, which is 16 to 17 percent,'' said Bruce Mosler,
the president for United States operations of Cushman & Wakefield,
the brokerage and services company with headquarters in New
York.
Sublet Space
Tenants Compete With Landlords
One continuing peculiarity of the office
market in Manhattan is the large amount of sublet space. This
is space being offered by tenants whose needs have shrunk or
have not grown as much as expected, often in competition with
space in the same building being offered directly by the landlord.
''Sublet space is about one-third of the market, about 18 million
square feet of the 55 million square feet available,'' said
James Meiskin, the president of Plymouth Partners, a brokerage
that represents tenants.
Since the original tenants of the space being offered for sublet
are, in general, still paying rents, they have an incentive
to cut the price to gain a subtenant and reduce their total
rent bills. This has a downward impact on overall rental rates.
Some real estate executives said the current situation with
sublet space is reminiscent of the late 1980's and early 1990's,
when a spate of new construction brought millions of square
feet of space onto the market as demand was softening.
''Sublets can carry a discount to direct space,'' said Robert
J. Alexander, vice chairman of Insignia/ESG. With financial
industry companies laying off thousands of workers, well finished
space is now available on good terms. ''If you can get a relatively
long-term sublet from an institutional financial firm with good
credit, that's not such a bad bet.''
But Barry Gosin, the chief executive of Newmark & Company Real
Estate, a brokerage and management company, said comparisons
with the late 80's and early 90's are overblown. ''The real
estate market today is much better off than it was then because
there has been no speculative building,'' he said.
He noted that a lot of the empty space in places like Midtown
south of about 34th Street are in formerly industrial buildings
that were not even considered part of the office market two
decades ago. Pointing to massive former industrial sites on
the West Side, he said, ''There is 120 million square feet of
space in buildings like 111 Eighth Avenue and the Starrett-Lehigh
Building that did not exist 20 years ago.''
Buildings for Sale
A 'Bifurcated' Market For Investors
Even as the leasing market continues in the doldrums, investors
are paying top dollar for selected buildings. Real estate executives
say that this is because alternative investments, like the stock
market, provide uncertain prospects for returns and investors
have developed a taste for things they can see and touch.
But the market for these properties has grown increasingly divided,
with buildings that are fully occupied with tenants on long-term
leases who have strong credit ratings drawing top bids, while
those with vacancies and a lot of leases likely to expire in
a few years are attracting little attention.
''The market is bifurcated in two ways,'' said Warren M. Heller,
an executive managing director for investment sales at Insignia/ESG.
''First, there are one and a half markets nationally that investors
are interested in: Midtown Manhattan and Washington, D.C.''
And in those markets, investors are seeking properties that
look like bonds in that they guarantee a steady, predictable
return on investment. Such sites are almost fully leased to
companies that are highly likely to pay the rent on their long-term
leases. ''If you have a building that looks like a bond, there
is an infinite amount of capital to bid for it,'' Mr. Heller
said.
The deal most often cited as being in this category is the sale
of 399 Park Avenue to Boston Properties for $1.06 billion, or
$626.85 a square foot. The building is 100 percent leased to
two leading financial institutions on long-term leases.
''That building had Citigroup and Lehman
Brothers committed to long-term leases, which made it an extremely
attractive investment,'' said Timothy J. Welch, an executive
managing director of Cushman & Wakefield. ''It was clearly
like a bond, with very stable return of 8 to 9 percent a year,
compared with 4 or 5 percent'' in the conventional bond market,
he said.
But investors are no longer willing to buy vacancies -- in
hopes of renting spaces at higher rates -- as they were a
year or two ago, said Anthony E. Malkin, the president of
W&M Properties, the operating affiliate of his family's investment
syndicates. As a result, he said, ''a lot of deals have gone
bust'' as prospective buyers could not secure financing to
close the transactions.
''The market has hit reality,'' said Leslie W. Himmel, a partner
in Himmel & Merringoff Properties, an investment company.
''You can see the correction; the velocity of deals is off
and properties are being taken off the market.'' She said
many owners are still trying to get sales prices of $300 a
square foot that may have been justifiable when annual rents
were in the $40's, but which are not with rents in the $30's.
The 18.5 percent increase in city property taxes is also helping
to chill the investment sales market, by threatening to increase
owners' costs as leases expire, Ms. Himmel observed. ''The
increased taxes can generally be passed on to tenants, but
when leases expire, a lot of landlords are going to be hit
hard,'' she said.
Record-low interest rates are providing an alternative for
landlords who cannot sell for the price they want or do not
want to face the tax consequences of a sale. They can pull
their own capital out of a property by refinancing the debt
and locking in a low rate.
For many hard-pressed property owners, this is a way to hold
on to properties they might otherwise lose to lenders. ''For
some people, refinancing is not an alternative to selling;
it is an alternative to getting wiped out,'' Mr. Heller said.
''With vacancies up and rents dropping, refinancing lets an
owner cover up and wait for a better day. It extends the life
of owners who otherwise would have lost properties.''
The desire to make properties suitable for refinancing may
help clear the overhang of sublet space by inducing landlords
to take back space being offered by tenants in return for
the tenants' signing of long-term renewal leases for the space
they are occupying, real estate executives said.
''I think we are going to see the recasting of leases this
year with a twist,'' said Robert Freedman, vice chairman of
GVA Williams, a brokerage and services company. If a tenant
occupies, say, 250,000 square feet with three to five years
left on the lease and also has 50,000 square feet vacant and
being offered for sublease, conditions are ripe for a deal,
he said.
To induce such tenants with strong credit ratings to extend
leases on the spaces they are occupying, landlords may be
willing to take back the sublet space, which they can market
directly, Mr. Freedman said. ''With a short-term lease, you
have a wasting asset, but with a long-term renewal, an owner
can monetize the asset,'' he said.
The arrangement has benefits for tenants as well, Mr. Freedman
said. Not only are they freed of the obligation to pay rent
on space they do not need, but they can clean up their balance
sheets by eliminating the lease obligation on the space taken
back by the landlord. ''These are silent workouts that are
happening because landlords want to lock in cheap money for
the long term,'' Mr. Freedman said.
Following are developments in other sectors of the commercial
property industry:
Suburban Offices
Vacancies Continue To Increase
The office market in northern New Jersey,
by some measures the fourth largest in the country, reflects
the overall economic slowdown in the region and big cutbacks
in the telecommunications industry.
''The vacancy rate increased to 18.9 percent in 2002 from
13.9 percent in 2001,'' said Christopher Kinum, senior managing
director of Cushman & Wakefield of New Jersey. ''And the average
asking rent declined to $25.92 a square foot from $26.24.''
In addition, he said, the pace of leasing dropped sharply
to a total of 8.8 million square feet in 2002, from 15 million
feet in 2001.
He said that as more telecommunications space comes to the
market this year amid job cuts, there will be downward pressure
on rental rates. ''I have never seen this market go more than
18 to 24 months without an uptick,'' he said, ''but this may
be different. I keep reading that the recession is over, but
I don't see it.''
The industrial sector of the market, which largely means warehouses
and distribution centers, has slowed as well, Mr. Kinum said.
''There has been a big slowdown in speculative building of
big boxes along the Turnpike and in the Meadowlands,'' he
said. ''Build-to-suit is the way to get financing today.''
Nevertheless, capital continues to pour into the state, seeking
investments in commercial and industrial real estate, said
Andrew J. Merrin, executive vice president for investment
at Cushman & Wakefield. ''We actually call it the paradox,''
he said.
''There are a number of things going on here,'' he said. ''First,
there is disenchantment with Wall Street, and pension funds
are increasing their allocations for real estate. Second,
with the low interest rates, financing is about as good as
it gets. And, third, the presence of all this capital is driving
product that you would not ordinarily see onto the market.''
In the boroughs of New York City, uncertainty about what will
be built in downtown Manhattan and the sublet overhang in
the rest of Manhattan is likely to limit development, even
in areas like Long Island City that have been rezoned for
more intensive development, real estate executives say.
''Our affiliate, Octagon Properties, just bought 10 one-story
buildings near the base of the 59th Street Bridge,'' said
Frank Zuckerbrot, an executive vice president of Sholom &
Zuckerbrot, a brokerage specializing in property outside Manhattan,
most of it in Queens. ''Some of them are contiguous, so there
is potential for development, but it is our intention to operate
them as industrial properties for tenants serving customers
in Manhattan,'' he said.
The rezoning aside, he said, most development sites in the
area have not been assembled, and he said there will be little
incentive to do so until it becomes clear what is going to
happen in Manhattan.
Vacancies continued to rise in Westchester and Fairfield Counties
although overall asking rents have not declined significantly.
However, concessions by landlords, such as periods of free
rent, have cut effective rents in some submarkets, according
to Jeffrey Dunne, an executive vice president in the Stamford
office of CB Richard Ellis.
''Asking rents are just that,'' he said. ''In some places
they are being achieved, and in some they are not.'' Landlords
in Greenwich have been among those most reluctant to offer
concessions, he said.
Retail Space
Demand Stays Strong In Manhattan
In spite of a soft leasing market for
office space, demand for retail space remained strong as consumers
continued spending and new stores sought to enter the rich
Manhattan market. As a result, rental rates have held their
previous levels or even increased in some locations.
''The international and national tourists have returned, and
there is retail activity all over town,'' said Faith H. Consolo,
vice chairman of Garrick-Aug Associates, a brokerage specializing
in retail space. One new entrant last year, she said, was
Best Buy, the big electronics operation that opened a store
at 23rd Street and the Avenue of the Americas and is building
out another at 86th Street and Lexington Avenue.
''The retail market has been consistent,'' said David A. Green,
executive director of the retail group at Insignia/ESG. ''Demand
has been sufficient to take up the available supply, so pricing
has gone up.''
He said demand was coming from sources as diverse as four
banks -- Commerce, Fleet, Washington Mutual and North Fork
-- that seem determined to have a branch in every neighborhood
in the city, to DeBeers, the diamond company, which is opening
its first store in this country in the St. Regis Hotel at
55th Street and Fifth Avenue.
He noted that SoHo, which suffered from a lack of tourist
traffic after the terrorist attack, seems to be making a comeback,
with Bloomingdale's planning to open a 125,000-square-foot
store at 504 Broadway, a space formerly occupied by a Canal
Jeans store. Other new entrants to SoHo, Ms. Consolo said,
were the Puma and Adidas shoe stores and the Crate & Barrel
and Sharper Image houseware stores.
Downtown, retailers displaced from the World Trade Center
sought new locations to tap what remains the nation's third
largest central business district, after Midtown Manhattan
and Chicago. Notable was the deal to place a 33,000-square-foot
Borders bookstore at 100 Broadway at Pine Street.
Broadway may become the main retail avenue in Lower Manhattan,
said Richard Hodos, the president of Madison HGCD, a brokerage
specializing in retail properties. ''The area will not be
successful if people place stores here and there,'' he said.
''You need to have a concentration to provide synergy, and
Broadway is a natural corridor for retail.''
Borders started looking for a new location soon after its
40,000-square-foot, three-level store in the base of the Trade
Center was destroyed in the Sept. 11 attack, said Virginia
M. Pittarelli, a senior vice president of Madison. ''Borders
considered itself part of the community and there was no question
about replacing their flagship store,'' she said. ''Within
90 days after 9/11 we were analyzing the market to find a
new location.''
Suburban malls appear attractive as well. Near the end of
last year, the Mills Corporation of Arlington, Va., announced
that it was purchasing the 885,000-square-foot Galleria at
White Plains in Westchester County and the 637,000-square-foot
Riverside Square in Hackensack, N.J.
Mills, a real estate investment trust, is also one of three
finalists in the competition to redevelop the Meadowlands
Sports Complex in northern New Jersey. Mills has joined forces
with a New Jersey-based REIT, the Mack-Cali Realty Corporation,
in advancing its proposal.
Hotels
Lower Rates Mean Higher Occupancy
New York's hotel operators have largely
succeeded in filling the rooms that were left vacant after
9/11 by domestic and foreign tourists who were reluctant to
visit the city. They did so, largely, by cutting room rates
to attract customers. As a result, their revenues fell sharply.
''Hotel operators have been increasingly successful in inducing
people to come here by offering great rates,'' said Sean Hennessey,
director of the New York area hospitality consulting practice
of PricewaterhouseCoopers, the accounting and consulting firm.
''But the business is hobbling along.''
He said the outlook for next year is for small gains in occupancy
and revenue, although 2003's first quarter will look especially
good because the occupancy rate early last year was an unusually
low 64 percent.
Over all, the estimated occupancy rate for all of 2002 was
74 percent, compared with 73.3 percent in 2001, but a far
cry from the virtually-sold-out rate of 83.9 percent in 2000.
The average room rate last year was an estimated $185 a night,
a decline from the average of $192 in 2001, which included
nine months of normal business before the attack, and well
off the record $222 in 2000.
A more telling statistic is revenue per available room, which
combines both room rates and vacancies. That was $137 in 2002,
down from $141 in 2001 and $186 in 2000.
The outlook for this year, Mr. Hennessey said, is for occupancy
to improve to 76 percent, with an average rate of $192 a night
and revenue per available room of $142.
He said hotel managers would be seeking to re-establish relations
with corporate customers who are less sensitive to price and
trying to wean themselves from dependence on tourists scanning
the Internet for bargains.

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